tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post7695913266602125705..comments2023-10-31T03:18:26.963-07:00Comments on Great Guys Weblog: The Book I Should Have WrittenBrethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comBlogger68125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-36542691955361540222019-05-11T02:55:22.083-07:002019-05-11T02:55:22.083-07:00erp:
I hadn't forgotten, I just neglected to ...erp:<br /><br />I hadn't forgotten, I just neglected to mention it.<br /><br />I can't remember where I read it, but pre-modern medicine, the cause of death for roughly 20% of women was either pregnancy or its sequelae. <br /><br />Which means that the number of pregnancies per woman is skewed downwards; after all, the vast majority of women died before reaching menopause. Therefore, their premature deaths eclipsed pregnancies they would otherwise have had.Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-66927357900219257622019-05-08T04:28:13.870-07:002019-05-08T04:28:13.870-07:00Skipper, you are forgetting women commonly died in...Skipper, you are forgetting women commonly died in childbirth until modern medicine. Many men had two or even three wives due the it. Maybe as AOG (I miss him) used to say, it was a feature, not a bug. :-)erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-65118074463906678742019-05-08T03:26:25.148-07:002019-05-08T03:26:25.148-07:00I have records going back generations, and for the...<i> I have records going back generations, and for the most part they always had the number of children they wanted. </i><br /><br />How many did they have to have to get the number of survivors they desired?<br /><br />What were the women's average lifespans? How many pregnancies did they have during that time? Breast feeding strongly inhibits fertility. Given, say 18 months post-partum breast feeding per full term pregnancy, and the average lifespans, how many children did your female ancestors have compared to what they possibly could have had? How did total lifetime fertility then compare to now? <br /><br />Why is it different?Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-33940604252639631542019-05-07T14:32:18.010-07:002019-05-07T14:32:18.010-07:00More or less a combination of everything. Never w...More or less a combination of everything. Never would have considered abortion.<br /><br />I didn't take the pill being very adverse to taking strong chemicals into my body. Even now I take no meds of any kind and never have because I tried to make sensible decisions right along. Good genes don't hurt either.<br /><br />Also I follow Paul Jaminet's Perfect Health Diet. It's awesome. <br /><br />I just had a check up with a complete lab workup and a follow-up CT scan of my abdomen on the anniversary of four hernias removed in 2018. I got the hernias trying to get support stockings on my husband when he had lymphanoma.<br /><br />A+ in every category just like when I was in school. :-)erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-39311403437396382202019-05-07T10:00:28.252-07:002019-05-07T10:00:28.252-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "...behavior did not matte...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>...behavior did not matter, because there were no effective ways to achieve desired, as opposed to realized, fertility.</i>"<br /><br />For my ancestors, that's simply untrue. I have records going back generations, and for the most part they always had the number of children they wanted. They talked about; the general idea was to have enough children to make sure someone could take care of them in old age and they'd pretty much stop when they got to that point (which was fewer after sanitation was invented). Maybe your ancestors consistently raped their women or the women were unable to resist their impulses, but for many of the rest of us, you're simply wrong.<br /><br />Hey erp, your time was before the pill. Did you simply have pregnancy after pregnancy or did you actual consciously decide how many children to have (more or less).Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-39800021481449760482019-05-07T02:31:38.788-07:002019-05-07T02:31:38.788-07:00Bret:
fer·til·i·ty
/fərˈtilədē/
noun
noun: fertil...Bret:<br /><br /><i>fer·til·i·ty<br />/fərˈtilədē/<br />noun<br />noun: fertility<br /><br /><b>the ability to conceive children or young.</b></i><br /><br />There's your answer, right there.<br /><br />Fertility is a biological function. Comatose women have become pregnant.<br /><br />Before modern birth control, the difference between potential and realized fertility was very small.<br /><br />Now it is huge.<br /><br />Of course, I'm speaking statistically. Sure, there were women who joined convents, or were able to avoid sex their entire reproductive lives. But as as far as demographics go, they don't matter — behavior did not matter, because there were no effective ways to achieve desired, as opposed to realized, fertility.<br /><br />Now there is.<br /><br />Women's realized fertility — actual behavior — is well below replacement rates in advanced countries, and plummeting in that direction everywhere else.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-71449112313152133052019-05-05T14:54:05.485-07:002019-05-05T14:54:05.485-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "Fertility has no behavori...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>Fertility has no behavorial component.</i>"<br /><br />What are you talking about? Is this another of your definitional arguments?<br /><br />=======<br /><br />fer·til·i·ty<br />/fərˈtilədē/<br />noun<br />noun: fertility<br /><br /> the ability to conceive children or young.<br /> "anxiety and stress affect fertility in both men and women"<br /> synonyms: ability to conceive, ability to have children, virility, fecundity, potency, reproductiveness<br /> "happiness has an effect on one's fertility"<br /><br />======================<br /><br /><br />Or do you not know how reproduction works? I assure you that "the ability to conceive children or young" is affected if the woman's behavior makes it very difficult to impossible to get pregnant, for example if she joins a convent or otherwise makes it unlikely for sex to happen.<br /><br />Note the example sentences. Anxiety, stress and happiness all have a behavioral component as well.<br /><br />You are making no sense to me on any of this.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-16919921992505428632019-05-05T14:53:40.292-07:002019-05-05T14:53:40.292-07:00... but you're too young. You probably qualif...... but you're too young. You probably qualify for two 30 year old. I think Trump has something like that in mind for down the road, so try to stay in shape.<br /><br />:-)erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-86352472771767180062019-05-05T14:44:08.885-07:002019-05-05T14:44:08.885-07:00erp,
I too would hold out for two 40-year-olds if...erp,<br /><br />I too would hold out for two 40-year-olds if I could get 'em. Heck, I'd go for 1 40-year-old! :-)Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-74100253824488264612019-05-05T12:46:01.026-07:002019-05-05T12:46:01.026-07:00Skipper, what's this???? A reasonable man!!!!...<br />Skipper, what's this???? A reasonable man!!!! Maybe the jubilation is upon us<br /><br />Perhaps due to waning health, meds, etc. some men's sex drive diminishes before death, but this area is rife with geezers and lots of them seem still on the prowl.<br /> <br />The knuckle on my ring finger is misshapen from an accident and the devices for getting around it are annoying, so I don't wear my rings. I am also often out and about alone because of my roomie's health restrictions and you would literally die laughing at the hits I get. :-)<br /><br />Last week a pretty decent looking male senior citizen insisted on helping with the groceries and when I told him the kids at checkout will put my stuff in the car, he said, "what about when you get home?" I said as gently as I could that I had my own old guy at home!<br /><br />A woman behind him was laughing so hard, I could hardly keep a straight face.<br /><br />No way am I settling for another 80 yo. This time I'll hold out for two 40's.<br /><br /> erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-53833140366465897722019-05-05T11:16:01.713-07:002019-05-05T11:16:01.713-07:00[erp:] You guys just see things very differently t...<i>[erp:] You guys just see things very differently than we do. If I understand it correctly and I think I do, sex is on your minds 24/7 from puberty to death.</i><br /><br />In my experience, longing for the feminine considerably predated puberty, no matter that I had no real idea just what it was I longed for.<br /><br />And its waning long predates death. I just turned 64. I think I reached give/don't give a damn parity at least five years ago, and scarcely give sex a second thought virtually all the time.<br /><br />It has become clear that women very much depend upon our addiction, because when we get over it, we are far less biddable. So, Jessica Valenti, while you are indeed quite attractive, change your own damn flat tire. Provided you can, which you probably can't.<br /><br />Your caveat — the evolutionarily ingrained programming to consider the possibility of pregnancy, no matter its modern avoidability — is what's pivotally important here.<br /><br />Given a choice, and what the choice will be, are two entirely different things.<br /><br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-31604834922390603582019-05-04T10:32:59.889-07:002019-05-04T10:32:59.889-07:00Skipper, you didn't miss the mark.
You guys...Skipper, you didn't miss the mark. <br /><br />You guys just see things very differently than we do. If I understand it correctly and I think I do, sex is on your minds 24/7 from puberty to death. It has nothing to do with children, birthrates ... . <br /><br />This situation evolved and I have no problem with it per se, but it's diametrically opposite from our view, at least the us that I was part of prior to my dotage. <br /><br />We saw sex as pleasurable, but always with the caveat that a pregnancy, welcome or not, could occur and that would change our lives in ways, not obvious to you guys -- and I don't mean the child birth part, but the life-long commitment.<br /><br />Mothers and not only human ones, will go to extremes to safeguard their children even if it means living with abusive men or even harems.<br /><br />The arrangement has worked in that humanity spread and prospered. <br /><br />Is it times for a change and should we now just kill off unborn human beings to suit women's careers or men's disenchantment with the burdens of fatherhood? <br /><br />Having experienced the ecstacy of holding my own newborns in my arms three times and been there to hold several of my grandchildren immediately after their births, I can tell you sex isn't even close.<br /><br />I thank my lucky stars, I won't be around to see the results of a world where killing our children is not only permissible, but routine.<br /><br />erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-83837921981305996172019-05-04T10:08:18.149-07:002019-05-04T10:08:18.149-07:00erp, how did I miss the mark?erp, how did I miss the mark?Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-89713115846200316332019-05-03T10:48:59.088-07:002019-05-03T10:48:59.088-07:00
Confirming my opinion that men are for heavy lift...<br />Confirming my opinion that men are for heavy lifting and women for heavy thinking.<br />erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-84392562074597639932019-05-03T09:48:48.982-07:002019-05-03T09:48:48.982-07:00[erp:] The reason our birthrate is falling so fast...<i>[erp:] The reason our birthrate is falling so fast is millions of our future citizens have been aborted and the abortion rate doesn't look to let up any time soon.</i><br /><br />Back in the day, that was James Taranto's Roe v. Wade conjecture: <a href="http://jamestaranto.com/roeeffect.htm" rel="nofollow">that progressivism is demographically doomed, because progressivism causes progessives to choose to have fewer babies.</a> <br /><br />I think his analysis falls short of reality. <br /><br />Assume that essentially all women in modern societies have no more children in their lifetimes than they desire.<br /><br />Unless progressive women, statistically speaking, <i>believe</i> they should have fewer children than do conservative women, then abortion is wastage less avoided by progressive women than conservative women.<br /><br />Which is to say, abortion has no impact on realized fertility. (Leaving aside the moral implications.)<br /><br />Put another way, if abortion was to be effectively outlawed tomorrow, I don't think realized fertility would change at all. Women would instead take more permanent measures when they reached their desired fertility.Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-88520212273111220402019-05-03T09:39:17.475-07:002019-05-03T09:39:17.475-07:00[Bret:] The women you know are clearly completely ...<i>[Bret:] The women you know are clearly completely different then the women I know. Based on the women I know, I reject the proposition.</i><br /><br />That's because you haven't thought through what I wrote.<br /><br />Fertility has no behavorial component. Respiration, digestion, hearing, taste, touch, have no <i>behavioral</i> component.<br /><br /><i>That is absolutely wrong based on what I know. For example, you mentioned convents. That's an example that shows these two propositions to be incorrect.</i><br /><br />No, it shows them to be true. Fertility, in and of itself, is a biological function that has no behavioral component. <br /><br />Realized fertility — a concept unique to human females — <i>now</i> has a behavioral component. In pre-modern conditions, a tiny percentage of women were cloistered. Because they provided a test case, they demonstrated how dangerous pregnancy was then. And they also show the huge difference that ensues when control over one's own fertility is easy rather than arduous.<br /><br />Which is before looking at the different material considerations between pre- and modern societies.<br /><br /><i>Hey Skipper wrote: "Proposition: the leading cause of death for adult women in pre-modern societies is either child birth, or the sequelae thereof."<br /><br />[Bret:] So? If anything, that will help mitigate any proposed population decrease since those women won't die now.</i><br /><br />You are looking at this completely bassackwards.<br /><br />Assume women aren't completely stupid. They were able to observe how dangerous pregnancy and childbirth were. Because they aren't stupid, they would take whatever measures were available to them to limit their risk.<br /><br />In contrast, modern medicine has almost completely eliminated the physical risk of pregnancy and childbirth, while at the same time material conditions are abundantly plentiful nearly beyond imagining.<br /><br />Presuming the inherited desire to have children remains constant over such a short period, and the most serious disincentives to having children are removed, then realized fertility should skyrocket, right?<br /><br />Yet it has done exactly the opposite.<br /><br />That requires 'splanations.<br /><br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-22674303491752927012019-05-02T13:02:43.119-07:002019-05-02T13:02:43.119-07:00Skipper, did you really mean to say, "women h...Skipper, did you really mean to say, "women had control all along" or is spellcheck "editing" responsible? Let me assure you that women never had and still don't have control because once a woman has a baby, that baby must take precedence over all else and that's the way it should and must be for a baby to survive and prosper. <br /><br />The reason our birthrate is falling so fast is millions of our future citizens have been aborted and the abortion rate doesn't look to let up any time soon.<br />erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-7049254666229102922019-05-02T09:29:46.099-07:002019-05-02T09:29:46.099-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "Proposition: fertility ha...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>Proposition: fertility has no behavioral component</i>"<br /><br />The women you know are clearly completely different then the women I know. Based on the women I know, I reject the proposition.<br /><br />Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>Proposition: women in pre-modern societies birthed as many children as their bodies and resources allowed for.</i>"<br /><br />That is absolutely wrong based on what I know. For example, you mentioned convents. That's an example that shows these two propositions to be incorrect. Joining a convent is behavioral and those women clearly did not birth as many children as their bodies allowed for.<br /><br />Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>Proposition: in pre-modern societies, more than half of all infants died before their fifth birthday.</i>"<br /><br />So? If anything, that will help mitigate any proposed population decrease since those infants won't die now.<br /><br />Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>Proposition: the leading cause of death for adult women in pre-modern societies is either child birth, or the sequelae thereof.</i>"<br /><br />So? If anything, that will help mitigate any proposed population decrease since those women won't die now.<br />Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-45714527015345102102019-05-02T08:56:11.204-07:002019-05-02T08:56:11.204-07:00So all sex is rape? Or women haven't known how...<i>So all sex is rape? Or women haven't known how babies are made for the last many millennia? Or women have absolutely no impulse control? Or?</i><br /><br />Proposition: fertility has no behavioral component<br /><br />Proposition: women in pre-modern societies birthed as many children as their bodies and resources allowed for.<br /><br />Proposition: in pre-modern societies, more than half of all infants died before their fifth birthday.<br /><br />Proposition: the leading cause of death for adult women in pre-modern societies is either child birth, or the sequelae thereof. (Some extremely ingenious person, almost certainly a women, though to compare mortality statistics of the general population and convents in pre-modern France.)<br /><br />Put differently, you are wrong. If you were right, then birth rates wouldn't have plummeted, because women had control all along.<br /><br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-67632647126399060042019-05-01T20:41:09.969-07:002019-05-01T20:41:09.969-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "...female choice over rea...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>...female choice over realized fertility is evolutionarily novel...</i>"<br /><br />So all sex is rape? Or women haven't known how babies are made for the last many millennia? Or women have absolutely no impulse control? Or?<br /><br />Many women I know would still have quite a choice over realized fertility even without birth control and I'm pretty sure their ancestors did too.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-41369649577216984402019-04-30T13:54:38.456-07:002019-04-30T13:54:38.456-07:00Well, that you too would carry water for Donald is...<i>Well, that you too would carry water for Donald is no surprise, at least. <br /><br />Of course, you can play with words to defend any idiotic statement you want, it is a fools errand. That you feel the need to be that kind of fool, and for Donald no less, should give you pause - unfortunately , it won't.</i><br /><br />Oh for pete's sake, instead of pushing that kind of crap, just hit Ctrl-A Ctrl-X, because its worth no more than that.<br /><br />And then do some reading on the art of rhetoric. For his target audience, who have seen their economic circumstances greatly diminished due to illegal immigration, the country is in fact full, because the last thing they want is more.<br /><br />You are the one being the idiot, forcing a simple minded literalness where it absolutely does not belong.<br /><br />(Or, you can demonstrate to me that continued illegal immigration won't harm the economic prospects of American citizens who used to work in the manual trades. But if you can't do that, then you cede my point.)<br /><br /><i>Yes, it is only a delay, for those immigrants tend to have lower feritility in their next generations -- and the poor countries they come from, as they get wealthier, follow the same pattern.</i><br /><br />That ignores the damaging effects that mass emigration has on the source countries. When Venezuela eventually recovers from being the latest example demonstrating the rampaging disaster that socialism always becomes, do you think it is going be better off for having at least 10% of the population having high tailed it for anywhere else?<br /><br />The most mobile, economically capable 10%?<br /><br /><i>OTOH, we can describe human life entirely as just a delay from death, an nonetheless we keep delaying ever more whatever we can of our problems, at personal and collective levels, so I don't see any better solution coming for now to tackle the Big Crunch. Either it self-corrects (as Bret defends), or it doesn't, and it is going to be something to worry at the same scale as global warming (i.e. if truly a problem, it will be obvious only after we are all dead).</i><br /><br /><a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/09/05/commentary/japan-commentary/need-sense-crisis-depopulation/#.XMi0qC-B1TY" rel="nofollow">Japan is leading the way in Asia. </a> There has never been such a rate of depopulation in history absent conquest or plague, and maybe not even then. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-46118103" rel="nofollow">European countries are in the same predicament.</a><br /><br />There is a marked difference with global warming. With respect to fertility predictions, reality has been far less than experts can keep up with. As for global warming, reality has also (almost hilariously) failed to get anywhere close to the mark.<br /><br />The difference is in that the former is bad, and the latter is good.Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-10997941395220120472019-04-30T13:54:31.795-07:002019-04-30T13:54:31.795-07:00[Clovis:] Among the first and second hand cases I ...<i>[Clovis:] Among the first and second hand cases I know of Brazilians moving illegally to the US, nearly half where about people with degrees, technical or academic.<br /><br />Of course, they don't get to compete with the natives at that, because their illegality means they can not validate their diplomas in the US system, so they end up competing with the manual trade laborers anyway.</i><br /><br />That only further makes my point. If elites faced the same job pressures as do manual laborers we wouldn't be talking about this now. That we are demonstrates clearly that they have absolutely no empathy for their fellow citizens.<br /><br /><i>That similar bureaucratic barriers are not fully implemented at lower level jobs is entirely due to lack of interest from your politicians (and the corporations which finance them). </i><br /><br />It isn't that simple. Some politicians are actively sympathetic to illegal immigrants. Some are pushing the interests of corporations who don't wish to pay higher wages. Libertarians are furious at the thought of a national ID card. E-verify works badly. <br /><br />But the reasons really don't matter. At the end of the day, some American citizens are getting pounded by illegal immigration. Trump is the first politician to actively fight their corner.<br /><br /><i>But then, to demonize brown people is much more an energizer to your political base than to actually solve the problem with technical virtual barriers (which are also far cheaper than any physical Wall). Fools gonna be fooled.</i><br /><br />Demonize brown people, really? How about some direct quotes, please.<br /><br />Technical virtual barriers are far less effective than you think. They have their place, but so do more extensive physical barriers. It's a problem without any single solution.<br /><br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-26234751601071256062019-04-30T13:26:25.867-07:002019-04-30T13:26:25.867-07:00[Bret:] This is where we have a fundamental disagr...<i>[Bret:] This is where we have a fundamental disagreement. My eyes tell me fertility variation are genetic and heritable. Who am I gonna believe, you or my lyin' eyes?</i><br /><br />I'd like to know what evidence you are looking at, and what biology books you are reading.<br /><br />Potential fertility lies far beyond what essentially all women realize in their lifetimes. In a time of unprecedented plenty, realized fertility is plummeting everywhere that plenty happens, even in expressly pro-natal religious cultures.<br /><br />Clearly women are choosing to have far fewer babies than they could potentially have. And that's the rub — female choice over realized fertility is evolutionarily novel. Fertility is independent of volition. It would be astonishing if evolution had in hand an answer for a question that had never before been asked.Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-78785469497269987482019-04-30T12:24:31.437-07:002019-04-30T12:24:31.437-07:00Clovis, am I misunderstanding your comment or are ...Clovis, am I misunderstanding your comment or are you saying that even in your brown part of the world, brown people don't have the highfalutin degrees that non-browns do?erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-57271854815620960602019-04-30T11:51:40.313-07:002019-04-30T11:51:40.313-07:00Skipper,
---
Third: If there aren't, or the w...Skipper,<br /><br />---<br />Third: If there aren't, or the why isn't comforting, doesn't importing immigrants only delay when water starts pouring over the gunwale?<br />---<br /><br />Yes, it is only a delay, for those immigrants tend to have lower feritility in their next generations -- and the poor countries they come from, as they get wealthier, follow the same pattern.<br /><br />OTOH, we can describe human life entirely as just a delay from death, an nonetheless we keep delaying ever more whatever we can of our problems, at personal and collective levels, so I don't see any better solution coming for now to tackle the Big Crunch. Either it self-corrects (as Bret defends), or it doesn't, and it is going to be something to worry at the same scale as global warming (i.e. if truly a problem, it will be obvious only after we are all dead).<br />Clovishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08921327103613284595noreply@blogger.com