tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post113192930679156795..comments2023-10-31T03:18:26.963-07:00Comments on Great Guys Weblog: They are Doomed!!!Brethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-1139872495332636052006-02-13T15:14:00.000-08:002006-02-13T15:14:00.000-08:00Yes, compared to the famines and plagues of the pa...Yes, compared to the famines and plagues of the past, modern "hard times" are a free beach vacation on golden sands.<BR/><BR/>However, I expect that at least Germany, Italy, and Spain will have a twenty-year stretch that resembles late-70s America, and Russia cannot escape far worse than that.<BR/><BR/>China, France, Japan, and Poland have more potential to have a "soft" crisis, but any or all of them might end up in the company of Germany, Italy, and Spain.<BR/><BR/>But you're right, all of that except maybe Russia's problems beat a poke in the eye.Oroboroushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01710250012500728430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-1139850747325682292006-02-13T09:12:00.000-08:002006-02-13T09:12:00.000-08:00Oroborous:I agree with everything you wrote, excep...Oroborous:<BR/><BR/>I agree with everything you wrote, except as a matter of degree. For example, you wrote "<I>many low-fertility nations are likely to fall upon hard times between now and 2045</I>," and I think that "hard times" might be a little strong. I think that those likely hard times are likely to be less hard than almost all those ever experienced thus far by humankind due to relatively high levels of wealth and advancing technology.<BR/><BR/>I think you're right when you say that the boomers may find their "golden years" to be less care-free than they imagined, but I think those years will still be remarkably good compared with what's come before them. In other words, it's more a problem of unrealistic expectations than anything else.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-1139819311965868932006-02-13T00:28:00.000-08:002006-02-13T00:28:00.000-08:00That they aren't doomed is my conclusion as well, ...That they aren't doomed is my conclusion as well, although mine is based solely on intuition.<BR/><BR/>It seems to me to be likely that some sub-culture in almost any population will value having children over any considerations of wealth and/or convenience. <BR/>As the general population, which places other priorities above being parents, dies off, the total population will shrink, but at some point the growth effects of the breeding sub-culture will begin to overwhelm the population contracting effects of the larger, less fertile culture.<BR/><BR/>Note, however, that there are lesser negative states than "doomed", and many low-fertility nations are likely to fall upon hard times between now and 2045.<BR/><BR/>Just because they're not going to whither away doesn't mean that they might not halve their current populations, and as your hypothetical example secondarily illustrates, on the way to equilibrium the population demographics get very grey.<BR/>The Boomers in most places are going to find their "golden years" to be less care-free than they might have imagined.Oroboroushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01710250012500728430noreply@blogger.com