tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post1185559245017195702..comments2023-10-31T03:18:26.963-07:00Comments on Great Guys Weblog: Complexity BubbleBrethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-58921022813471077192013-03-03T10:58:51.601-08:002013-03-03T10:58:51.601-08:00Very clever and self-coherent, although I think of...Very clever and self-coherent, although I think of historical examples that tend to contradict it.<br /><br />It may not be correct, for example, that most in the Roman Empire knew how to stay alive. Vast areas were depopulated.<br /><br />World War II popped many bubbles but did not end in scum.<br /><br />Some historians have claimed that before a (local) collapse of a civilization, it shows a remarkable cultural efflorescence. Venice in the late 18th c. is an example.<br /><br />The early posts at RtO, back in early 2008, often speculated that a highly ramified economy would be more resistant, rather than less, to collapse. I'd say events tend to support that, so far.<br />Harry Eagarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196202758858876402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-63456367019381829452013-02-22T11:22:24.193-08:002013-02-22T11:22:24.193-08:00The singularity guys (Kurzweil in particular) have...The singularity guys (Kurzweil in particular) have been looking at Moore's law and extrapolating where it will take computer in another couple of decades. I find it intriguing and possible that computers will be smarter than humans eventually.<br /><br />But that doesn't mean that civilization will necessarily be able to sustain yet more complexity. It could even be that the singularity causes the collapse of civilization. It'll certainly have a big effect, like, well, a singularity!Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-50245640485119463972013-02-22T11:14:24.799-08:002013-02-22T11:14:24.799-08:00This is a reason I look at talk about The Singular...This is a reason I look at talk about The Singularity with a skeptical eye - it is precisely the inability to cope with increasing complexity that puts the breaks on such an event. Like approaching light speed, more and more energy goes in to maintaining the bubbles and less in to making them bigger.Susan's Husbandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02862667802025231163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-84190226374994044762013-02-22T11:09:14.546-08:002013-02-22T11:09:14.546-08:00Hi Jeff,
Good to hear from you and I'm glad t...Hi Jeff,<br /><br />Good to hear from you and I'm glad to see a little bit of activity over at cerebellum blues yesterday (I think it was yesterday?).<br /><br />Thanks for the Shirky link. Since Shirky mentions Tainter and devotes many paragraphs to describing Tainter's research, I'd say yes, he got some of his ideas from Tainter. :-)<br /><br />I think Shirky perhaps mistakes bureaucratic complexity for general complexity. For example, he writes, "A world where that ["Charlie bit my finger"] is the kind of thing that just happens from time to time is a world where complexity is neither an absolute requirement nor an automatic advantage." But what he misses is the incredible complexity that enabled an amateur to shoot that minute of video and get it up on the Internet and be viewed by 170+ million people. There's far, far more complexity involved in that than in what the major studios require to put out a polished bit of video. The studios just have bureaucratic complexity which is expensive, rigid, and non-resilient. "Charlie bit his finger" is an emergent phenomenon that came from far greater complexity.<br /><br />It's pretty tough to compete against emergent phenomena.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-39255981123710968292013-02-22T10:42:28.441-08:002013-02-22T10:42:28.441-08:00Great post. Favorite bit is this one:
"when ...Great post. Favorite bit is this one:<br /><br />"when it comes to the institutions of governance and commerce, lots of small, independent and therefore resilient bubbles have been replaced by a few colossal bubbles that take a great deal of energy to keep inflated. Not only do these bubbles absorb energy that could be used to keep other bubbles inflated, these colossi are also rigid, heavy and sharp and burst the surrounding bubbles at ever increasing speeds."<br /><br />If only Obama acolytes understood this better, I think they would be far more skeptical of his plans to take us all forward under the aegis of a more centralized and powerful government.<br /><br />Your post reminded of a great one by Clay Shirky, which is here:<br /><br />http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2010/04/the-collapse-of-complex-business-models/<br /><br />Perhaps he got some of his ideas from Tainter?<br /><br />Jeff Shattuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12434755135113757619noreply@blogger.com