tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post4211607896888910904..comments2023-10-31T03:18:26.963-07:00Comments on Great Guys Weblog: Go Forth and MultiplyBrethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comBlogger76125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-33130395390317492482016-08-28T17:36:21.764-07:002016-08-28T17:36:21.764-07:00Skipper,
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Global Warming. How much are we will...Skipper,<br /><br />---<br />Global Warming. How much are we willing to do now to prevent [insert parade of horribles here] later?<br />---<br />Remember de Ozone hole?<br /><br />When cause, effect and solutions are clearly identifiable, I guess we are willing to do a lot.<br /><br />Which is part of the problem with the Global Warming sci-policy crowd. They desperately wanted to secure consensus, in order to move to the next phase, action, without barely understanding what that action should be. <br /><br />To some purposes, it worked. I know people doing good careers on the subject. Their children will surely be better for it.Clovishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08921327103613284595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-48663298257050954272016-08-27T13:06:18.023-07:002016-08-27T13:06:18.023-07:00Hey Skipper asks: "What part of evolutionary ...Hey Skipper asks: "<i>What part of evolutionary theory says decisions are heritable? </i>"<br /><br />Baby fever (desire) is traced to hormone levels. Hormone levels are heritable. Unless you're gonna claim decisions aren't linked to desires (which would be utterly absurd), then decisions to have babies are heritable. There's clearly a big variance and that's all that's needed.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-36010075045974134482016-08-27T12:47:03.242-07:002016-08-27T12:47:03.242-07:00Some women desire having a baby MORE than having s...<i> Some women desire having a baby MORE than having sex. To that end, sex is just something to be endured to get to the goal. </i><br /><br />Given the depth of the desire to have a baby, it is a real stretch to conclude that sex is merely something to be endured. Perhaps you have some assumptions that need checking.<br /><br />No, wait. What needs checking is logical fallacies, in this case a category mistake. Having a baby is the consequence of sex, but sex and having a baby aren't even remotely the same; they are no more comparable than chalk and cheese.<br /><br />Especially now, when the are both conceptually and physically distinct.<br /><br />Also, you keep begging the question.<br /><br />Asserting that women deeply desire <b>a</b> baby says nothing about how many babies they want. Clearly, where women have the agency to decide for themselves, it is a heck of a lot fewer than they are capable of bearing. <br /><br />What part of evolutionary theory says decisions are heritable?Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-29414170029022656752016-08-27T09:17:40.853-07:002016-08-27T09:17:40.853-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "Yes, hormone levels affec...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>Yes, hormone levels affect sexual desire...</i>"<br /><br />Sure, but that's not what's important.<br /><br />Hormone levels affect baby desire. See my other post.<br /><br />Some women desire having a baby MORE than having sex. To that end, sex is just something to be endured to get to the goal.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-82316302514055180502016-08-27T09:15:15.115-07:002016-08-27T09:15:15.115-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "Global Warming"
Ind...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>Global Warming</i>"<br /><br />Indeed. That's why I picked 100 years as one of the time bounds.<br /><br />And that's part of my argument against doing anything about global warming. Even if right, why should I care enough to make sacrifices? By the time it's adequately severe (if ever) to be bad for the human species, I and my children will be long dead.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-36826560517100933852016-08-27T01:59:39.545-07:002016-08-27T01:59:39.545-07:00[Clovis:] For the future of civilization? I suppos...<i>[Clovis:] For the future of civilization? I suppose I could give it a $1 coin if I can find one in my pocket.<br /><br />For the future of my children? My entire present and future bank account, my blood and my soul. </i><br /><br />Why put this part of the discussion in the realm of the hopelessly hypothetical, when there is no need to?<br /><br />Global Warming. How much are we willing to do now to prevent [insert parade of horribles here] later?Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-11115261508244177712016-08-27T01:57:29.451-07:002016-08-27T01:57:29.451-07:00There is no doubt that hormone levels affect procr...<i>There is no doubt that hormone levels affect procreation desires. </i><br /><br />At least the third time: Procreation is the effect of which sex is the cause.<br /><br />Yes, hormone levels affect sexual desire, but there is no evidence the general level sexual desire is heritable. And, in any event, women's desire is highly preference and situation driven; neither of which are heritable. In contrast, female fertility is an autonomous function upon which preferences have no effect.<br /><br />Having forgotten the cause and effect relationship, you also step over the evolutionarily unprecedented ability of women to completely disconnect sex from procreation. Women can now satisfy their libido, about which evolution has had a great deal to say, without causing procreation, about which evolution also has had a great deal to say. <br /><br />Which is where Barren and Fertile go off the rails. You are insisting something exists that, until now, has never needed to exist, and, therefore, about which evolution is silent.<br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-59472080775527440702016-08-26T11:24:20.138-07:002016-08-26T11:24:20.138-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "...specific preferences t...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>...specific preferences themselves are heritable. There is no reason to believe that is true.</i>"<br /><br />One more time. There is no doubt that hormone levels affect procreation desires. There is no doubt that hormone levels are mostly genetic and heritable. Therefore, procreation desires are genetic and heritable.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-79345477116802699822016-08-26T11:22:19.977-07:002016-08-26T11:22:19.977-07:00Clovis wrote: "For the future of my children?...Clovis wrote: "<i>For the future of my children?</i>"<br /><br />That's why I wrote 100 years as the minimum. My children will also quite likely be dead by that point. If they produce grandchildren, I might move that 100 year horizon out a bit.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-67958594197691333992016-08-26T06:18:16.081-07:002016-08-26T06:18:16.081-07:00(Blogger ate my original comment last week. Memo ...(Blogger ate my original comment last week. Memo to self -- do not biff that text file until I actually see the comment posted.)<br /><br /><i>[Bret:] That's all my models require and then there's no catastrophic population decline. I'm glad we're in agreement on the critical point: there is a genetic component with heritability to baby desire which will lead to a distribution with non-zero standard deviation.</i><br /><br />No, we aren't in agreement. <br /><br />Clearly humans have the capacity to form preferences -- that much is innate, therefore genetic.<br /><br />But you are asserting that, in addition to forming preferences, specific preferences themselves are heritable. There is no reason to believe that is true. <br /><br />Humans must eat -- we experience hunger; since that is a bodily function, of course it is genetic. Humans also have food preferences that vary widely by culture and individually. That should be sufficient to demonstrate that the ability to form a type of preference -- even involving one as important to survival as eating -- does not mean that a specific instance of the preference is at all heritable. <br /><br />And, as I have mentioned above, throughout evolutionary relevant time, women's <i>preferences</i> for how many children they had were irrelevant. The question you are begging is how it can possibly be that a gene without any survival value at all can continue to exist, when natural fertility, sex drive and maternal instinct are already completely sufficient.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-13810524952096102552016-08-26T06:07:12.039-07:002016-08-26T06:07:12.039-07:00Peter, a good one. Woody Allen, a national treasu...Peter, a good one. Woody Allen, a national treasure, alas gone over to the dark side.<br /><br />Harry, have you noticed some of our fellow Americans on the dole from so many different directions, programs and initiatives, have waaaaaaaaaaaay over replacement number of children that even Trump couldn't afford them all. Are they counted in your statistics?erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-56468541147542394472016-08-26T05:50:31.125-07:002016-08-26T05:50:31.125-07:00[Harry:] Tell that to the Mormons.
I did, above, ...<i>[Harry:] Tell that to the Mormons.</i><br /><br />I did, above, with links. Mormon fertility trends are following the rest of the US, but from a higher starting point. When I lived in Idaho in the mid-80s, the average Mormon family had 5.5 kids. IIRC, one generation later it is below three. Mormon convert fertility is unchanged by their new faith.<br /><br /><i>Although it occurs in a small fraction of families so may hardly distort the demographic graphs,it is pretty obvious that the depressive effects of middleclassness on family size are not permanent; rich people often have lots of children. Donald Trump, for example </i><br /><br /><a href="http://www.statista.com/graphic/5/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us.jpg" rel="nofollow">Wrong</a>.<br /><br /><br /><br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-67148650801388036432016-08-26T04:53:14.600-07:002016-08-26T04:53:14.600-07:00Worrying too much about the future of civilization...Worrying too much about the future of civilization can actually be <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U1-OmAICpU" rel="nofollow">unhealthy</a>.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15836910211382887430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-48464404085543309902016-08-26T02:51:04.671-07:002016-08-26T02:51:04.671-07:00Bret,
For the future of civilization? I suppose I...Bret,<br /><br />For the future of civilization? I suppose I could give it a $1 coin if I can find one in my pocket.<br /><br />For the future of my children? My entire present and future bank account, my blood and my soul.<br /><br />Of course, it is the strong connection to each next link that makes a good chain.Clovishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08921327103613284595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-90422538026861203902016-08-25T11:56:36.977-07:002016-08-25T11:56:36.977-07:00Clovis wrote: "...yet we try our best to stay...Clovis wrote: "<i>...yet we try our best to stay alive while we can...</i>"<br /><br />Not me, so much. Or rather, yes, I try to personally stay alive but after my death I'm not terribly concerned about the longevity of civilization or homo sapiens.<br /><br />There will be a last human and how much does it matter to me if that last human dies in one-hundred years or one-hundred million years? Certainly I'd pay $100 to have it be the latter as opposed to the former, but I certainly wouldn't willingly pay $100,000. I'm not sure where the cutoff for me is, but definitely less than $100,000. And I'm not even sure why I'd pay anything at all or make any sacrifice.<br /><br />What would you pay to extend civilization or the species?Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-74454551050633545632016-08-25T10:40:24.386-07:002016-08-25T10:40:24.386-07:00'converge at a sub-replacement level in all so...'converge at a sub-replacement level in all societies that achieve female autonomy and GDP above about $10K per capita.'<br /><br />Tell that to the Mormons.<br /><br />Although it occurs in a small fraction of families so may hardly distort the demographic graphs,it is pretty obvious that the depressive effects of middleclassness on family size are not permanent; rich people often have lots of children. Donald Trump, for exampleHarry Eagarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196202758858876402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-17636689859601800202016-08-25T06:41:22.911-07:002016-08-25T06:41:22.911-07:00Bret,
Yeah, I did enjoy reading that post, full o...Bret,<br /><br />Yeah, I did enjoy reading that post, full of nice insights.<br /><br />Yet, I think it is a bit unfair to refer to our numbered days in order to dismiss a lesser worry.<br /><br />We'll all surely die, yet we try our best to stay alive while we can. Our civilizations may be a blip in spacetime, yet I still get interested enough on its near future inclinations. <br /><br />Clovishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08921327103613284595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-45311572224980102112016-08-23T07:56:38.820-07:002016-08-23T07:56:38.820-07:00Clovis wrote: "I guess most people who think ...Clovis wrote: "<i>I guess most people who think about the topic are more worried about the survival of societies...</i>"<br /><br />Are they? I mean, we're talkin' hundreds of years. Also, I rather think that all civilizations collapse and western civilization will too. As I wrote <a href="http://greatguys.blogspot.com/2013/02/complexity-bubble.html" rel="nofollow">here</a> (and I think you'll enjoy this post):<br /><br />"<i>Every story has an ending as does every civilization. This civilization, like all others before it, will one day collapse, where collapse, in Tainterian terms, is the rapid simplification of society.</i><br /><br />So regardless of fertility rates, this civilization's days are numbered (though I have no idea what that number is) and I think it's guaranteed that this society won't survive. But from the hyperfroth the hyperphoenix will arise and a new civilization will be born and human life will continue.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-79432242006480422132016-08-23T07:45:24.362-07:002016-08-23T07:45:24.362-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "...since Alaska has the h...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>...since Alaska has the highest fertility in the US, it must also be the stupidest.</i>"<br /><br />3rd highest fertility. IQ by state and fertility by state may not correlate very well (inversely or otherwise), but Alaska is the <a href="http://brandongaille.com/list-average-iq-by-country-and-american-states/" rel="nofollow">15th stupidest</a> (36th smartest). Add the rampant alcoholism that tends to go with brutally dark living conditions and it may be effectively even stupider.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-38844035398786573092016-08-23T06:52:22.509-07:002016-08-23T06:52:22.509-07:00[Bret:] Really? You don't know a single woman ...<i>[Bret:] Really? You don't know a single woman who has 3 or more children?</i><br /><br />I stand corrected. Perhaps on account of being a garden variety guy, I just don't think of other people's families much, not even relatives.<br /><br />So when I riffled harder through the memory banks, I indeed came up with a few that had three kids. And maybe a friend of my wife's who has four. Unless it's three.<br /><br />However, those few are swamped by those women of whom I know enough to be aware of how many children they have — not anything like a statistical sample, and please, for the love of God, do not ask for names — they are swamped by those who have two or fewer.<br /><br />I lived in a well to do neighborhood in a suburb of Anchorage, so no surprise that there were scarcely any families with three or more kids. Most of the state isn't like that, though. According to you, since Alaska has the highest fertility in the US, it must also be the stupidest.<br />Hey Skipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10798930502187234974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-24381527041784244442016-08-22T18:06:35.761-07:002016-08-22T18:06:35.761-07:00I guess we are back at my point, Bret: while you l...I guess we are back at my point, Bret: while you look to be happy enough granting non-extinction of the human race, I guess most people who think about the topic are more worried about the survival of societies - and the levels of economic and technological activities enabling the world we live in now.<br /><br />Look at present tendencies: we have rich populations having their offspring self-reduced, with their wealth greatly benefitting the offspring of external (and poorer) populations moving to the depopulating countries.<br /><br />What's the long term result of that, assuming it gets to be the norm?<br /><br />Europe looks to fear an islamization that ultimately could hinder their economic growth and cultural relevance.<br /><br />The Japanese refuse to let foreigners come in any massive wave that could replace their dwindling population.<br /><br />Russia can hardly become an atractive enough place to revert its depopulation course through immigration.<br /><br />China may come to welcome its depopulation, if it can keep economic growth at a level they consider reasonable (and robotics will probably allow them so, as it has been with Japan to some extent).<br /><br />Your model does not touch, nor is relevant, to any of the questions the points above may create.Clovishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08921327103613284595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-27276643085466739772016-08-22T14:35:11.856-07:002016-08-22T14:35:11.856-07:00... I think this string is fascinating. Never did...... I think this string is fascinating. Never did I expect that you guys would be arguing over -- of all things -- female fertility. <br /><br />My life sure would be dull with the GG.<br /><br />:-)erphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09826044412670324694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-81884227072897438202016-08-22T11:19:58.956-07:002016-08-22T11:19:58.956-07:00Hey Skipper:
What's even more surprising abou...Hey Skipper:<br /><br />What's even more surprising about your lack of exposure to families with 3 or more children is that <a href="http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/birth-rate-per-1000/" rel="nofollow">Alaska has the 3rd highest fertility rate in the United States</a> (excluding territories).Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-14630637813439472532016-08-22T10:55:28.274-07:002016-08-22T10:55:28.274-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "All of them had that desi...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>All of them had that desire satiated by the second child.</i>"<br /><br />Really? You don't know a single woman who has 3 or more children? I'm having trouble believing that since <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/05/07/family-size-among-mothers/" rel="nofollow">more than 1/3 of all mothers have 3 or more children</a>, and even <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/05/07/childlessness-falls-family-size-grows-among-highly-educated-women/" rel="nofollow">1/4 of highly educated women have 3 or more children</a>. I'm not sure where you've been hiding out with all of these low birthrate folk. Or are you saying their desire was satiated at 2 but they went on to have more anyway? In which case, I'm not sure what your point is.<br /><br />I know many, some of them religious, some of them not, many my age and younger, and indeed those I know happen to more or less fit the statistics.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-72730545443698127012016-08-22T10:32:07.867-07:002016-08-22T10:32:07.867-07:00Hey Skipper wrote: "... then they are genetic...Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>... then they are genetic in the sense that genes built the system, and the system varies among individuals...</i>"<br /><br />That's all my models require and then there's no catastrophic population decline. I'm glad we're in agreement on the critical point: there is a genetic component with heritability to baby desire which will lead to a distribution with non-zero standard deviation.<br /><br />Hey Skipper wrote: "<i>I must have some apologizing to do.</i>"<br /><br />Yes, you do.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.com