tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post4502543918433343998..comments2023-10-31T03:18:26.963-07:00Comments on Great Guys Weblog: I Love Divided GovernmentBrethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-75017371891803960162007-06-01T13:06:00.000-07:002007-06-01T13:06:00.000-07:00Great post! FYI - I linked to this from my most re...Great post! <BR/><BR/>FYI - I linked to this from my most recent <I><A HREF="http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/2007/05/carnival-of-divided-government-tertius.html" REL="nofollow">Carnival of Divided Government"</A>.</I> I have also been making <A HREF="http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/2007/05/end-game-face-of-victory-in-iraq.html" REL="nofollow">predictions</A> about the End State in Iraq. <BR/><BR/>BTW- I think your trackback is broken, I could not get it to work.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-59400764384535420002007-05-25T18:13:00.000-07:002007-05-25T18:13:00.000-07:00Yes, that was exactly my position and very uncomfo...Yes, that was exactly my position and very uncomfortable to hold, too.<BR/><BR/>I believe I said I could, with bitter gall and wormwood in my heart, accept 100 American deaths in battle to prove what I already knew had to be true.<BR/><BR/>That was mere booshwah, because I did not then, and do not now, believe the people running things are capable of learning anything.<BR/><BR/>They didn't learn anything from Vietnam, which is how I figured it out,<BR/><BR/>That includes all of them, no exceptions.<BR/><BR/>My predictions?<BR/><BR/>As long as the Americans stay, no net change.<BR/><BR/>Once we leave, Iraq will dissolve into some sort of congeries of medieval despotisms.<BR/><BR/>Then we'll bumble along that way until the ultra Muslims push things to a breaking (or if you are Gladwellian, tipping) point and the hard men take over.<BR/><BR/>I have before said that if you really wanted to persuade our enemies to rethink their view, you'd plaster their streets with posters of Berlin and Tokyo in 1945, with the label, 'Let's talk.'<BR/><BR/>That is also why I advocate the Congress recognizing that Iran has been at war with the US since 1979.<BR/><BR/>As long as we're not serious, why should we expect anybody else to be?Harry Eagarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196202758858876402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-22184763806780706822007-05-25T14:32:00.000-07:002007-05-25T14:32:00.000-07:00Bret;One could also argue it was necessary to prov...Bret;<BR/><BR/>One could also argue it was necessary to prove Mr. Eager's case. It's one thing to pontificate about it, another to have hard evidence.<BR/><BR/>That is, in fact, a big reason I supported the invasion. It would have been wrong to just say "The Sunnis can go pound sand", it's a very different thing to say so after the last four years.Susan's Husbandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02862667802025231163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-61951706147828115122007-05-25T09:28:00.000-07:002007-05-25T09:28:00.000-07:00I can't say I was ever wildly optimistic, but I've...I can't say I was ever wildly optimistic, but I've been more pessimistic the last few months. If Harry's right (Arabs incapable of running a modern state), even if things are going a bit better, is there an end game?<BR/><BR/>But I also agree that the invasion was probably necessary in order to at least remove Saddam. I think it would've happened eventually anyway.Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-53839575545207753492007-05-24T23:21:00.000-07:002007-05-24T23:21:00.000-07:00My initial optimism has been beaten down, and now ...My initial optimism has been beaten down, and now I'd be happy if, after a brief and hopefully fairly bloodless civil war, we end up with relatively prosperous Kurdish and Shi'ite areas controlled by strongmen.<BR/><BR/>The Sunnis can go pound sand.<BR/><BR/>But I still believe that the invasion and nation-building were worth trying.Oroboroushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01710250012500728430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-39964328481479799212007-05-24T22:08:00.000-07:002007-05-24T22:08:00.000-07:00Congrats on the accurate prediction. So any new p...Congrats on the accurate prediction. So any new predictions? I guess you're saying that the current positive trend is just a temporary blip? Or can they somehow manage to get to a peaceful, non-modern state? Or will we end up running it for them?Brethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15063508651955739056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806884.post-52347294829335468732007-05-24T21:39:00.000-07:002007-05-24T21:39:00.000-07:00I predicted, before it started, that Muslims, and ...I predicted, before it started, that Muslims, and especially Arab Muslims would be incapable (or perhaps just not interested in) organizing and running a modern state.<BR/><BR/>That's a prediction that's 100% correct.Harry Eagarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04196202758858876402noreply@blogger.com