Using James Surowiecki’s theme of the wisdom of crowds, yesterday’s WSJ survey of 55 leading economists is to be taken seriously as a 2005 forecast. The average inflation-adjusted growth projection came to 3.6%. The mid-year CPI was pegged to 2.5%. Mid-year interest rates were 3.04% for the 91 day Treasury bill and 4.79% for the 10 Year Treasury bond. The dollar was expected to be stable. Mid-year unemployment down slightly to 5.3%. All in all, a very promising outlook.No kidding. Sign me up!
Thursday, January 06, 2005
Larry Kudlow points out: