Oroborous and I made a
bet in September, 2007. I bet that the SP500 wouldn't close below 1131 between then and the end of September, 2008. That price was picked as the level that would demarcate random market fluctuations (my side of the bet) from the prediction that the market price in September, 2007 was predictably overpriced because of falling housing prices and mortgage problems (the side of the bet Oroborous signed up to).
Well, the price did close below 1131 on September 29, 2008, with less than 30 hours left in the bet. While that was a close call, I'll certainly admit that much of the price action is due to housing and mortgage related issues, so Oroborous won both the spirit and letter of the bet.
I now owe Oroborous up to $100 of books, CDs, or DVDs.
Oroborous, please leave your email in the comments so we can make arrangements.
1 comment:
Bet's a bet, but that one was so close that it's hard to draw conclusions.
What's wrong with a tie? I detest tiebreakers.
Back when I was a sports writer, I got to watch the most exciting contest I've ever seen: 2 All-America swimmers in a head-to-head in the 5,000 freestyle.
After 20 minutes in which neither got more than a head ahead, it was a dead heat, smashing the American and NCAA records by about a minute.
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