Search This Blog

Wednesday, May 12, 2004


I've noticed that Jim uses the word "crisis" a lot more than I do in the posts on this Blog (and comments). Jim has used it 15 times, six times for Bret (but 5 of those were quoting or responding to Jim), and Howie once.

I'm wondering if it's just coincidence, reflects overall pessimism/optimism, reflects an affinity for the word, or is based on a definitional difference. I have a hunch it's just a definitional difference.

I would say that we haven't really had an economic crisis in this country since the Great Depression and would like to know what Jim considers to be a crisis.

Must an economic contraction be at least 2%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%, or 80% to pass the threshold for an economic crisis?

Must the unemployment rate exceed 6%, 8%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 40%, or 60% to be called a crisis?

Or is there any other way the concept of economic crisis can be related to numbers?

I know, I'm a numbers guy and Jim is a story guy, but try to speak my language so I can better understand what a crisis is (in the economic sense). Or is this a case of not being able to define it, but you'll know it when you see one?

No comments: