The Data Versus the Story

Jim writes:

I'm beginning to suspect that Bret does not believe anything unless it can be reduced to an equation.

That's true in some cases. For example, consider the article Jim cites about the Iraq war generating more radicalized Muslims. I can find thousands of articles in mainstream magazines and other media that also put forth this opinion in a compelling and convincing manner. However, I can also find thousands of articles in mainstream magazines and other media (and I'm sure Jim's aware of them) that put forth the exact opposite opinion in an equally (to me) compelling and convincing manner. In such a case as this, I choose not to form an opinion until considerably more data comes in, which, in this case, will take years or even decades. Especially since these mainstream media have reported all kinds of stuff that turn out not to be true. One prison scandal does not make or break a war effort. It is only one data point.